Upcoming Events

​第67回研究会＠釧路公立大学

The 67th Meeting in Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan

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Date

2026年5月30日（土）

May 30, 2026 

Venue

釧路公立大学（１階123中講義室）

Kushiro Public University of Economics​ (1st Floor, Room 123)

Access

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Program:

09:30 - Registration

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10:00 - 10:50

中野 凌太（釧路公立大学）

Ryota NAKANO (Kushiro Public University of Economics)

Title:

Time Inconsistency, Educational Loan, and Human Capital Accumulation (with Daiki MAEDA and Kohei OKADA)

Abstract:

  We develop an overlapping generations model that incorporates agents’ time inconsistency, educational loans, and human capital accumulation. Using this model, we show that an increase in present bias raises the growth-maximizing subsidy rate. Moreover, we numerically provide welfare analysis.​

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10:50 - 11:40

清田　耕造（慶應義塾大学）

Kozo KIYOTA (Keio University)

Title:

Local Impacts of a Mega-disaster on Domestic and Foreign Travelers: The Case of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (with Theresa GREANEY)

Abstract:

  This study examines the regional impacts of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake on Japan’s travel services industry. Using triple-differences designs, we find significant, regionally-heterogeneous negative effects, notably a cumulative -54.0 percent inbound visitor loss for the Tohoku region over seven years post-disaster. Although “East Japan” includes disaster-impacted prefectures in both the Tohoku and Kanto regions, the Tohoku region suffered more negative and longer-lasting inbound visitor losses. Early and continued references in foreign media to the “Tohoku Earthquake” seem to have had long-lasting and adverse impacts on Tohoku's ability to attract foreign visitors.

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11:40 - 11:50     Coffee Break

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11:50 - 12:40

荒 知宏（福島大学）

Tomohiro ARA (Fukushima University)

Title:

Market Size and Vertical Specialization in Production Networks

Abstract:

  This paper studies how market size shapes vertical specialization in production networks. We develop a model in which heterogeneous firms choose whether to export final goods and import intermediate inputs. The model shows that market size alone can generate systematic differences in vertical specialization, even in the absence of technological differences. A larger country tends to specialize in downstream activities and export relatively more final goods, while a smaller country specializes in upstream stages and export relatively more intermediate inputs. However, the direction of specialization depends on the relative importance of final-goods and input trade and may reverse when input trade dominates. These patterns operate through endogenous firm selection into exporting and importing and resulting reallocations across production stages. As a result, market size has ambiguous general equilibrium effects on wages, trade patterns, and welfare, with novel implications for the fragmentation of global production.

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12:40 - 13:50     Lunch Break

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13:50 - 14:40

早川 和伸（IDE-JETRO）

Kazunobu HAYAKAWA (IDE-JETRO)

Title:

Heterogeneous Effects of US Tariffs under Trump 2.0 on Export Quantities and Prices

Abstract:

  This study empirically investigates the effects of additional tariffs imposed by the second Trump administration on exports to the US. Specifically, we will conduct two types of analyses. First, we examine the impact of US additional tariffs on export values, quantities, and prices. The second is to explore the heterogeneous effects of US tariffs across product characteristics and country characteristics. To accomplish this, we analyze monthly export data from 31 countries (excluding China) from January 2023 to December 2025. Our analysis will provide the first comprehensive glimpse of the trade effects of US tariffs under Trump 2.0.

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14:40 - 15:30

内藤 徹（同志社大学）

Tohru NAITO (Doshisha University)

Title:

Endogenous Market Size, Partial Privatization, and Urban Structure

Abstract:

  This study integrates a mixed duopoly market into an open monocentric city model and proposes a general equilibrium framework in which the market size is endogenously determined through urban structure and household location behavior. Public and private firms compete in the manufacturing sector, which is located in the central business district. The study analyzes how public firm privatization affects the equilibrium price of manufactured goods and the equilibrium city size. Privatization increases the equilibrium price and reduces the city size. However, once the indirect effects of city size are considered, the welfare impact of privatization becomes ambiguous. Consequently, Matsumura’s (1998) conclusion that partial privatization always maximizes social welfare does not hold true. Numerical examples illustrate that full nationalization or full privatization can be optimal depending on the parameter values.

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15:30 - 15:50    Coffee Break

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15:50 - 16:40

柳瀬 明彦（名古屋大学）

Akihiko YANASE (Nagoya University)

Title:

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, Industrial Distribution and Emissions (with Jinshuo QU)

Abstract:

  This paper analyzes the effects of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on firm location and global emissions in a footloose capital model with two regions: a regulated region imposing a carbon price on domestic production and imports, and an unregulated region. Even under full border adjustment, the CBAM cannot eliminate firms’ incentive to relocate to the unregulated region, as domestic sales there remain exempt from carbon pricing. A higher carbon price shifts firms toward the unregulated region, and trade liberalization reinforces this tendency. Without border adjustment, sufficiently stringent carbon pricing triggers full agglomeration in the unregulated region, rendering carbon pricing ineffective for emissions reduction. The CBAM prevents this outcome by sustaining a dispersed equilibrium.

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16:40 - 17:30

遠藤 正寛（慶應義塾大学）

Masahiro ENDOH (Keio University)

Title:

地域の歴史的経営制度が生産性に与える影響の分析：漁業の団体経営を事例として（東田啓作氏、牧岡亮氏との共著）

Abstract:

  漁業の団体経営は、個人経営と比べて漁業就業者の所得を増加させる。しかし、漁業就業者が団体経営に参加する割合は地域によって大きく異なる。本研究では、地域によるこの差異が、第二次世界大戦後の各地域における水産業従事者数によって説明できることを示した。団体経営への地域の姿勢はその地域の漁業者の所得に強い影響を与え、もし外生的な要因によってある地域で団体経営参加割合が0.1増加すると、その地域の漁業就業者1人当たりの販売額は約2倍にもなる。日本の第二次世界大戦の敗戦という80年前の出来事が、団体経営への地域の姿勢という漁業経営体の経営環境である制度を規定し、それが現在でも継続していることは、興味深い発見である。

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18:00   Dinner (Kushiro Downtown Aria)